Laura E. Panattoni LE, Vaithianathan R, Ashton T, Lewis GH., Australian Health Review 35(1):45-51., 2011 Feb 25
Abstract
Predictive risk models (PRMs) are case-finding tools that enable health care systems to identify patients at risk of expensive and potentially avoidable events such as emergency hospitalisation. Examples include the PARR (Patients-at-Risk-of-Rehospitalisation) tool and Combined Predictive Model used by the National Health Service in England.When such models are coupled with an appropriate preventive intervention designed to avert the adverse event, they represent a useful strategy for improving the cost-effectiveness of preventive health care.
This article reviews the current knowledge about PRMs and explores some of the issues surrounding the potential introduction of a PRM to a public health system. We make a particular case for New Zealand, but also consider issues that are relevant to Australia.